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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-08-03T08:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-03T08:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47936/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NE in only STEREO A COR2, likely pylon obscured in GOES CCOR-1 and unavailable in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 real-time due to a downlink gap. The likely source is AR 14498, observed in SDO AIA 304 first as a filament jostling with surface brightening starting around 2026-08-03T07:10Z, followed by a wider swath of faint dimming and brightening starting around 2026-08-03T08:16Z in SDO AIA 171/193, all centered ~N22W12.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-07T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47942/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-03T03:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=22.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=335.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2026-08-03T13:16Z
2026-08-03T08:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=31.0, Speed=368.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2026-08-03T18:06Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-07T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-05T16:23Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T12:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T02:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T10:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-06T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_131700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-03T16:36Z

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